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Here Come Those Santana-Ana Winds Again
There was a weird feeling in the city today. While making my daily afternoon coffee run, I noticed that it was quite warm, almost balmy for this time of year. A very light rain was falling, but it was sunny off in the distance, indicating that the sprinkles would trail off soon.
Normally, 65 degree weather in early February would send me in to a panic about global warming. But somehow, I couldn't summon up fears of catastrophic climate change. I just got this uplifting feeling, even though I knew the temperature wouldn't hold, that it'd be down in the 30s again by the weekend...
I don't know, it just felt like spring today, didn't it?
This morning, prior to the Mets' Santana press conference, I heard a lot of folks trying to rain on this parade. Of course, many of these Negative Nellies root for other teams: "Who cares if the Mets got Santana? He sucks, and his grapes are sour anyway."
But just as many of the naysayers were Mets fans. This can be blamed, at least in part, on the intense pessimism of the fan base. The way last season ended has implanted a sense of creeping doom amongst the faithful, which I'm sure will rear its head any time the team goes into a slump for the next 50 years.
Plus, even if Omar Minaya has made some shrewd deals during his tenure, this is not a franchise with a history of making good trades. Therefore, everyone assumes there has to be some catch about getting the best pitcher baseball. Like, he's one pitch away from visiting Dr. James Andrews. Or he belongs to a secret al Qaeda cell.
I understand all these concerns. Trust me, I'm definitely a glass-half-full type. But if your favorite team acquires Johan Santana--and gives up only minor leaguers to do it--you don't sit around thinking of ways to poke holes in his resumé. You leap for joy.
Most of the Gloomy Guses I heard today were lamenting the fact that Santana is not a "complete game pitcher". True enough, but who is in this day and age? That's like criticizing a four-star restaurant for not churning its own butter.
Look at the few pitchers who are on the same tier as Santana. Josh Beckett, Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt, Jake Peavey, Brandon Webb--that's pretty much it, and none of these hurlers go 9 full innings with any regularity. In even an outstanding, Cy Young-type year, they'll have 3 or 4 complete games at the absolute max. If you want a guy who throws 9 innings each time out, build a time machine, go back to 1967, and grab Bob Gibson.
Also consider that Santana not being a "complete game pitcher" may have kept him healthy, and could continue to do so for years to come. Baseball Prospectus has a stat called Pitchers Abuse Points (PAP), which ranks hurlers based on how many pitches they throw in their starts. According to BP, going past the 100 pitch mark is bad, but not catastrophic. 110 pitches is slightly worse, but still not horrible. But once you approach 120 pitches (what I like to call the Dusty Baker Zone), things get dicey. The more often a pitcher veers into this zone, the more likely it is he'll blow out his arm.
Greg Maddux was a master at avoiding abuse. In his prime, he averaged over 7 innings per start, yet almost never threw more than 100 pitches in any given start. That's why he was rarely hurt, why he's won more than 350 games, and why he's still pitching at age 43. To me, Maddux is the model that all elite pitchers should follow if they want to stay on top of their game for ten to fifteen years, rather than going the Orel Hershiser route of a few amazing seasons followed by crippling injury. And I say this as someone who would love to crack Greg Maddux in his doofy-looking dome with a tire iron.
Last year, Santana ranked 50th in PAP. In the three prior seasons, he ranked in the 70s. In other words, his arm has not been abused, which bodes well for his future. The Twins are one of the smartest organizations in baseball (even if they have a cheapskate for an owner), and they clearly had a plan to keep their most important asset healthy for years to come. I hope the Mets are wise enough to take a page out of their book.
There are some grumblings that Santana had a bad end to his season. That "bad" second half still left him with a record of 15-13, an ERA of 3.33, and 235 strikeouts. And this while pitching in the American League for a team that finished 17 games out of first place. Translated to the lighter-hitting National League, this would have meant 37 wins, 700 strikeouts, and an ERA of negative-12 (my math may be a bit off).
I think the only crime you can possibly pin on Santana is the home runs he gave up: 33 last season, which is quite a bit. But it's important to remember that his home park, the Metrodome, is a launching pad with garbage bags for outfield fences. It's not as bad as Citizen's Bank Park, a total joke of a stadium, but it is definitely hitter friendly. Shea is a much more forgiving environment for pitchers, and CitiField projects to be similarly proportioned.
I think what I'm trying to say is that having Johan Santana on your team is a good thing. And it's okay to feel happy about that. Really, I promise.
If you wanna complain about something, gripe about how long we have to wait for spring training games to start. 'Cause for the first time in a long time, I'm looking forward to them.
Posted 02.06.08 9:15pm * Permalink
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