03.30.08 - The Scratchbomb 2008 MLB Preview

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The Scratchbomb 2008 MLB Preview

Because future generations will need to laugh, and because I like to be proven wrong, and because there is an off chance I may be proven right even though it will net me nothing except a nice stroke to the ego, I present unto you my predictions for the upcoming baseballing season.

AL EAST
1. Yankees. Every Yankee fan I talk to says, "It's gonna be exciting to watch the young pitching develop this year." (Seriously, all of them say exactly that to me. Verbatim. What are the odds?) That really translates to, "Oh fuck, all that young pitching better develop this year," because they're gonna need Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy to grow up mighty fast. Not to mention that Mike Mussina looked shot the last two months of '07. And Andy Pettite's already had some injuries this spring and will have to dodge Mitchell Report questions everywhere he goes. And the Bridge to Rivera might just be a Bridge Too Far; I gotta see at least a half season of Joba Chamberlin before I anoint him the Messiah. And even if he is as advertised, the Yanks plan on moving him to the rotation at some point, leaving the 8th inning in the gulp-worthy hands of Latroy Hawkins and Rowdy Kyle Farnsworth. All that being said, they still have a fearsome lineup, and I think Boston's questions are just as pronounced, if not more so.	Joe Girardi clashed with a meddlesome owner as manager of the Marlins. I can't see that happening with the happy-go-lucky Steinbrenner ownership.
2. Boston. Before spring training started, I probably would have gone with Boston to win the division. Then Curt Schilling's back blew up. Then Josh Beckett, who amazingly avoided injury for most of '07, got hurt. And then I remembered that they would start the season with a grueling trip to Japan. And then I remembered that they're relying on a pair of rookies in their own rotation, as well as some young whippersnappers in the field. I foresee the Yanks getting out to a fast start, Boston playing mediocre baseball while recovering from a Far East Hangover, and a bad case of post-championship complacency preventing them from firing on all cylinders for much of the dog days of summer.	Jacoby Ellsbury: The Stolen Base That Liberated Tacos for an Entire Nation
3. Toronto. If everything breaks right, if Roy Halladay and A.J. Burnett combine for 60 starts, if Scott Rolen has a bounceback year, if B.J. Ryan recovers from injury, if Frank Thomas staves off old age, if they get solid output from guys like Alex Rios--they will still finish in third. And to further infuriate their fans, I'm pretty sure they'll finish with a better record than at least one division winner in the NL. Life ain't fair.	Frank Thomas, in a typical action photo
4. Tampa Bay. I know mathematically it will be difficult, given the strength of the top three teams in this division, but I can see the Rays (Get Thee Behind Me, Devil) finishing above .500 this year. They've got exciting young players like Carl Crawford and B.J. Upton, with super-prospect Evan Longoria joining the club at some point this year. The top 3 in the rotation--Scott Kazmir, James Shields, and Matt Garza--ain't too shabby, either. Sure, their bullpen still stinks, and their stadium looks like the inside of a coffee can. Still, they could be a serious threat if they played in any other division. I realize that's kinda like saying you could swim across the ocean if you had gills.	This former Devil Ray has reformed and become born again, unlilke Jose Canseco.
5. Baltimore. The Orioles have money, they have talent, and on paper there's really no reason why they shouldn't be more successful than they are, even in the loaded AL East. For whatever reason, Peter Angelos seems to prefer screwing around and doing something self-destructive nonsense like trading Erik Bedard. They got some good players out of the deal, but considering the cost of elite young pitching these days, they'd be much better off trying to build the club around him than position players who are much more easily replaced. The O's must be run by Jimmy McNulty. Would that make the Yankees Mayor Carcetti, or Clay Davis?	A man's got to live by a code. For the Orioles, that code is sucking.
AL CENTRAL
1. Detroit. They've got some pitching questions, particularly in the bullpen (somebody needs to hide Joel Zumaya's copy of Guitar Hero). But holy crap, that lineup. Barring injuries--and given the relative age of the team, that isn't out of the question--they should score 9 zillion runs (my math may be off). As awful and as lazy a fielder as Miguel Cabrera is, he's that good of a hitter, times a factor of a hundred--and he's probably gonna hit sixth in that lineup. They will easily club their way into the playoffs, caveman style.	Joel Zumaya: Can throw a 100 mph fastball, but is still struggling to get 5 stars on "Reign in Blood"
2 and Wild Card Winner. Cleveland. Great starting rotation, with C.C. Sabathia and Fausto Carmona at the top. Great bullpen. Great young lineup, and management was smart enough to lock up guys like Victor Martinez and Grady Sizemore for years to come. There's not much to dislike about the Indians, other than the fact they're in the same division as the frighteningly good Tigers. They could dominate for years to come, if they can find a way to hang on to Sabathia. And if they could permanently harness the power of the lake midges.	The second happiest man in the world about Johan Santana's ridonkulous contract.
3. Twins. I'm not really sure why, but I consider myself a well-wisher for Minnesota, in that I wish them no specific harm. The baseball fan in me thought it was criminal that they couldn't keep Johan Santana (the Met fan in me was ecstatic, however). They're about as smart an organization as Baltimore is stupid, putting what few resources they have into scouting and their renowned farm system. If Terry Ryan was a more charismatic GM, Moneyball could've been written about him. At the very least they find a way to not suck every year. A fan can ask for little more.	Before Frank Thomas joined Toronto, Justin Morneau was the blackest man in Canada
4. Kansas City. The Royals have a not-horrible pitching staff headed by Gil Meche and Brian Bannister. They also have a not-as-awful-as-you-think lineup, with up-and-comers like Alex Gordon and Billy Butler. The Royals have a chance to be not a complete and utter joke this year. Scary thought, I know.	Reason 3,423 Why The Terrorists Hate Us: This man makes $11 million a year.
5. White Sox. The Chisox won't be horrendous, just thoroughly mediocre in a tight division. Their lineup is oldish, injury-prone, and has underperformed the last two seasons, and the pitching is extremely thin beyond Mark Buehrle. This summer, Ozzie Guillen's Crazy Latin Guy act will wear thinner than Carlos Mencia's.	It's this kind of class that has earned Ozzie Guillen the good will of the public that will sustain him in the tough months ahead.
AL WEST
1 Seattle. The acquisition of Erik Bedard, and coupling him with Felix Hernandez, could give the Mariners the best 1-2 starters in the league. There's some questions about their lineup--Richie Sexson's offense has reached near-Rey-Ordonez levels of incompetence--but given the strength of their pitching, I see no reason why they can't win the AL's Tallest Midget Contest.	If the Mariners don't make the playoffs this year, Ichiro will totally punch himself in the face.
2. Angels. The Angels are another team I would've picked to make the playoffs pre-spring training. But given the injuries to John Lackey and Kelvim Escobar--whose career might be over--plus Jered Weaver's sophomore slump, they suddenly have some serious pitching questions. And I don't think they have the offense to compensate for it, even with the arrival of Torii Hunter.	Torii Hunter, one of roughly 73 outfielders on the Angels' roster.
3. Texas. AKA Where Pitching Goes To Die. I have to be honest: other than Josh Hamilton, Ian Kinsler, and Jarrod Saltalamacchia, I'm finding it hard to think of anyone who plays for the Rangers without looking up the roster. That doesn't necessarily mean they suck, but it probably does.	This man's tears could singlehandedly solve the Rangers' pitching woes. Too bad he's never cried.
4. Oakland. Billy Beane has gone into full rebuilding mode. I presume he has a plan for future success, but I also presume the A's won't see those results for 4-to-5 seasons. They will suck quite a bit this year, and Joe Morgan's schadenfreude will be on full display every Sunday night.	Billy Beane, the man who tried to ruin baseball by introducing the heinous tool of analysis.
NL EAST
1. Mets. The top three teams in this division are very close, and I wouldn't be surprised if the trio finished in any combination of 1-2-3. But the Mets' rotation 1 through 4 is the best in the division by a mile, and you could make the argument that it's the best in the majors. Their bullpen is the best in the division, too, and with that rotation it will not experience the wear and tear it did last season. I do have some offensive concerns, because of the lineup listing to the left, and because the Braves probably have more firepower, and because the Phillies definitely do. I'm making the leap of faith here because I believe pitching wins championships, and because I am completely and foolishly biased.	Willie Randolph believes champagne tastes even better when it's been on ice for an extra 12 months.
2. Atlanta. The Braves are getting a lot of mileage whining about how the so-called experts don't respect them, nobody expects them to win, blah blah blah. Fine. You have a good rotation. Brian McCann, Jeff Francouer, and Mark Teixeira give you a great middle of the lineup. You are a very good team. Will you shut the fuck up now, please? Atlanta should be less concerned with their respect among the experts and more about what they'll do when John Smoltz inevitably goes down with injury again, and on those days when Tom Glavine isn't getting strike calls three feet off the plate. And yes, I still want to see Chipper Jones get hit by a dumptruck and go flying through a plate glass window and land in a swimming pool full of rusty nails and cancer.	Chipper Jones, displaying the smirk only known to men who have impregnated a Hooters waitress.
3. Philadelphia. Their lineup is scary, and will be for years to come with Chase Utley and Ryan Howard in the middle of it. But so many flukey things happened to conspire to give them the division title last year--not just the Mets' flop, but out-of-their-mind pitching performances from a bullpen that had been atrocious until September. Considering this year's Phillies = last year's Phillies + Brad Lidge, I wouldn't count on that happening again. But I look forward to seeing drunk Phillies fans at Shea this year trying to pick fights with beer vendors and sprinkler heads.	Admit it: even if you knew nothing about his man, you'd think, "That looks like a guy who beats his wife."
4. Washington. The Nats should have a decent lineup, particularly if Dmitri Young stays healthy and they find some way to keep Nick Johnson on the field. Moving out of RFK should also help them score runs. I believe Manny Acta is already on his way to becoming a great major league manager; in his first year at the helm, he got a lot out of the very little that was the Nats' roster. If they had any pitching at all, they could be a dangerous team. Sadly, they do not.	Shortly after this picture was taken, the DC area experienced a quake measure 6.5 on the Richter scale.
5. Marlins. Jeff Loria is fucking menace. In a fair world, he'd get some punishment out of Greek mythology, like being tied to a rock and having his entrails picked out by buzzards. But MLB owes him for destroying the Expos, just like they wanted. So he gets to ruin yet another franchise. Douchebag.	"I'm sorry, I meant to extend only my middle finger, because I fucking hate you people."
NL CENTRAL
1. Cubs. I could see Chicago winning 95+ games this year. Not because they're so awesome, although they are a legitimately good team with a great lineup and a bona fide ace in Carlos Zambrano. My prediction of big things for the Cubs hinges more on the rest of the division, which ranges from mediocre to horrific. I wouldn't be surprised if they played .750 ball against that weak competition.	"Guys, I rescinded the curse a long time ago. It's outta my hands."
2. Milwaukee. Despite good young hitters like Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder, there's not much hope for the Brewers to challenge the Cubs unless they finally get a full healthy season from Ben Sheets. In other words, there's not much hope. Which is too bad, because the Brewers are another one of those teams I'd like to see succeed. It's hard to call any team in the same division as the Cubs "long suffering," but I empathize with any fanbase that endured 30+ years of Bud Selig ownership.	Have you seen me?
3. Cincinnati. Dustyball returns! Computer-hating sportswriters across the land rejoice! The Reds are already everyone's "sexy" pick to make the playoffs. (In this context, "sexy" = "my producer/editor made me pick some team that was awful last year".) I see them being one of those teams that starts out strong, puts fear in the hearts of the Cubs, maybe even spends a few weeks in first place, then sputters out when the law of averages catches up to them. Lest we forget, Dusty Baker has a history of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory (see: 2002 Giants, 2003 Cubs, both of which were much better teams than these Reds). And if I were Aaron Harang, I'd get that elbow insured posthaste, 'cause Dusty's gonna ride it like a rented mule. Prepare to throw 150 pitches per game, young man.	If it's possible for a picture to make elbows shudder, this is that picture.
4. St. Louis. You could look at Albert Pujols' decision to not get surgery on a wonky elbow as brave. I look at it as stupid, considering it could jeopardize his future health just so he can play for a Cardinals team that will do absolutely nothing this year. St. Louis fans are too forgiving to call for Tony LaRussa's head, but considering the weird stuff that's befallen him and his team since 2006 (Scott Spiezio? WTF?), I wonder if this is the year where they finally lose patience with him.	"Barkeep! Three fingers of scotch over here! Hey, I'll tell you when I've had enough!"
5. Houston. In 2007, at least the Astros had the year-long party of Craig Biggio's Last Season to keep them entertained. This year, they will have nothing to distract them from the fact that they suck hard. They bought the hype about Kaz Matsui, forgetting that his numbers were inflated by Coors Field. They traded several good prospects for Miguel Tejada, because they were seemingly the only people in baseball unaware that he would wind up in the Mitchell Report. They won't come close to competing, even in this division, but they will contend with the Giants and the Orioles for the worst run franchise in the majors.	"Whew! Glad I'm gettin' outta here before it gets really shitty."
6. Pittsburgh. Despite a depressingly long string of suckitude, the Pirates have had a regime change and look like they've finally started the long hard road back to relevance. That's the good news. The bad news is that they will remain not very good for a while longer. Although they actually have a few good pitchers, like Ian Snell and Tom Gorzellany. Pick them up for your fantasy team, as long as your league doesn't put too much emphasis on wins.	Remember Willie Stargell? Yeah, he was pretty awesome.
NL WEST
1. Colorado. The Rockies are probably the most balanced team in the division, and now that they've finally found some pitchers who can perform at Coors Field, they are a force to be reckoned with. Plus, they have Jesus on their side, so that's a pretty good asset. (The Devil doesn't have a team now that Tampa Bay has dropped him, so he'll stick to sponsoring musicians.)	Oh Lord, please bless thy hits which we are about to receive.
2 and Wild Card Winner. Arizona. I don't know what to expect out of the Diamondbacks' lineup--they were actually outscored by their opponents last year, and they didn't make any offensive acquisitions in the winter to offset that unfortunate stat. But their pitching carried them last year, and with the addition of Dan Haren--who could compete with Johan Santana and Jake Peavey for NL Cy Young honors--it will continue to do so.	I hope to see the Diamondbacks in the playoffs, because that will mean less of this man in the broadcast booth.
3. Dodgers. The outgoing Grady Little Administration made the curious decision to start crusty veterans like Luis Gonzalez, Jeff Kent, and Nomar Garciaparra at the expense of exciting youngsters like Andy LaRoche, Andre Ethier, and Matt Kemp. (To be fair, the geezers' ginormous contracts surely had something to do to with their excessive playing time.) In his years with the Yankees, Joe Torre showed similarly youth-phobic tendencies, and the Dodgers' roster is still loaded with overpaid senior citizens, so I don't expect that to change. Plus, the Dodgers insist on starting Juan Pierre, who is...oh, what's the phrase I'm looking for? Not good at baseball. Yeah, that's it.	Joe Torre's arrival in LA leads to the latest celebrity trend: ardent nose picking.
4. San Diego. Other than the Phillies, the Padres were the most grateful for the Mets' late season collapse. Otherwise, everyone would be talking about how they unpunched their own ticket to the postseason. And unlike the Mets, they did little to improve themselves in the offseason. Jim Edmonds would be a great pickup for centerfield, if this was the year 2000. Jake Peavey is one of the best pitchers in the game, but he can't do it himself.	Last year, Trevor Hoffman returned to mid-career form, and when his team needed him the most, he totally choked.
5. San Francisco. The Giants should thank their lucky stars that they have Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum. Not just because they're two of the best young starters in the league, but because without them, the Giants would be historically awful this year. Think 1962 Mets, or 2003 Tigers. They are poised to be that pathetic, and they have absolutely nothing in their farm system right now to look forward to, either. And boy, that Barry Zito deal looks awesome, huh?	Ladies and gentlemen, the starting first baseman for your 2008 San Francisco Giants!

Posted 03.30.08 5:20pm * Permalink